Here is some questions, reguarding the free agency this summer, I will examine. I got the idea from the 'open thread' over here at Third Quarter Collapse. A bunch of guys there were debating about some free agency questions (including me), so I decided to have my own.
Will Otis lock up Dooling? Can we finally rid ourselves of Arroyo (and his contract)? Is this J.J.'s final season on the Magic? Will we use his trade value to upgrade?
Dooling better stay. A lot of people don't realize his importance to this team. I would let go of Bogans and JJ before Dooling. I'm not saying he needs to start or anything, hes exactly what we need off the bench - not just an offensive spark, but a great defensive spark too. Keyon is very valuable to this team, and one of my favorite players on this team, by the way.
I don't think Arroyo will be back next year because resigning him would take up too much room for the other guys like Dooling and Evans. That means that Nelson will still start and Dooling will be the backup PG off the bench, with Hedo to help out sometimes at the 1. Considering that, and if Arroyo doesnt resign, maybe Otis will get another cheap option at PG. I just can't see Otis resigning Arroyo and not Dooling.
Also... J.J. does have two years left on his contract after this one so maybe he might actually be stuck on the bench. We might have to hear his whining for a few more seasons if Otis still thinks he is too valuable to let go. I think Otis will trade him after these past Marbury type whinings because he knows we dont need guys like that. Plus, sharpshooters are a hot commodity, and J.J. is pretty unproven at the NBA level. So saying that, I think we can get some good value in return. Im hoping teams will over-value him so we can either trade him (or package him), for an upgrade at the 1 or 2 spots.
Upgrading the point guard and shooting guard spots are the main problem, in the offseason, for Otis. Power forward should be fine with Battie coming back, as he can spell Dwight with rebounds and the occasional outside shot. A lot of people on message boards across the internet, clammored for Otis to trade for a starting power forward before the recent trade deadline. But people forget that once Battie returns this season or next, we will have a more-than-solid option there at the 4. The voids at the point and shooting guard are more gaping and need to be adressed first.
Two things need to be figured out about the point and shooting guard spots this offseason. Is Evans our long term answer at shooting guard? We have already locked up Nelson for five more years... Is he staying the starter at point guard and then will we just look for an upgrade at the two instead?
I don't think anyone can complain if Evans stays our starter at shooting guard. He is a great option, and just what we need to complement the other starters. Nelson is the big question. Will he finally break out and be the point guard he needs to be with that big contract? Do we upgrad the point guard and keep Nelson on the bench? If we do that then we are wasting all that money Otis gave to him. We have Nelson for five more years so, it seems were in a bind. Or does Otis try to trade Nelson and get a better point guard that way? I honestly don't think that will happen because he has stuck by Nelson after giving him the 5-year contract. Trading him will only make Otis look bad for giving it to him then trading him away - basically telling everyone he failed at the endeavor. Nelson isn't in an All-Star form, but he has been more than solid, and has had a better season than many give him credit for. Not nearly worth that contract though.
There are many questions reguarding the Magic's backcourt, but the point guard is the biggest question. The problem is we might not be able to upgrade there. Due to Nelson's contract and Otis not wanting to 'give up' on his signing and make himself look bad - we might be stuck. That leaves the shooting guard. We could possibly trade or sign another shooting guard; even the draft should be a good place to get a young option. But if all that fails, and were stuck back with Evans, I sure won't be complaining.
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Great subject and intriguing enough that I decided to sign up and chime in.
Two things are going to come into play this summer in a big way; our draft picks and the MLE.
We free up 5 roster spots, of which I think we may only fill two from in house. Those being Dooling at PG and Evans at SG/SF.
Since the Magic will only be around 14 mil or so under the luxury tax, hopefully those two will re-sign for 3-4 mil a year each. I think those prices are reasonable. That will leave us with 7 mil to sign a free agent and our two draft picks (if we don't have two draft picks, then we need to resign Augie).
I say we draft a PG and a PF and use the MLE to sign a SG. If we play it right, this will leave us barely under the luxury tax, and in business to compete for the championship.
As for the starting 5, I think Battie will need to come off the bench, leaving the starting 5 as is, though with an upgrade at the 2. If we start Battie, then Turk and Lewis will slide over, leaving the newbie free agent SG coming off the bench as our sixth man.
As for J.J., he needs to beat out Bogans for a spot in the rotation, and even then he may not get one. This team, at least the one I am envisioning, would be awful deep, with playing time hard to come by.
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